The global bakery supply chain is undergoing its most significant restructuring in years, as geopolitical breakthroughs, commodity price volatility, and tightening EU regulations converge to reshape the industry landscape. On June 18, the United States and Iran formally signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, pledging non-interference in internal affairs and agreeing to reach a final comprehensive agreement within 60 days. Iran will gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz—through which approximately one-fifth of global oil passes—while the U.S. lifts maritime blockades and begins easing sanctions. Brent crude immediately fell below 80perbarrel,droppingfromwartimepeaksnear120. For the bakery industry, sustained lower oil prices bring marginal relief across energy consumption, plastic packaging materials, and cold-chain logistics costs, though full supply normalization remains months away. These macro-level shifts are driving intensified dialogue among global professionals at major International Bakery Exhibition events, where supply chain resilience and cost management have become urgent strategic priorities.

Upstream commodity markets remain dynamic. CBOT soft red winter wheat futures rose for a third consecutive session on June 17, with the July contract closing up 16.75 cents at 612.75 cents per bushel, driven by speculative short-covering and persistent Midwest rainfall threatening both harvest progress and quality. Meanwhile, BMD crude palm oil benchmark contracts experienced technical correction after recent gains, with the front-month contract settling at 4,038 ringgit per ton—down 28 ringgit—following three consecutive days of advance. The longer-term bullish narrative remains intact, supported by Indonesia's upcoming B50 biodiesel mandate effective July 1 and robust Malaysian export data showing 9.6% to 23.8% month-on-month growth for early June shipments. In the sugar complex, ICE raw sugar futures showed tentative stabilization, with the July contract settling at 13.85 cents per pound after probing two-month lows. Brazilian Center-South production data for the second half of May revealed a sharp 24.8% year-on-year decline in sugar output to 2.19 million tons, as mills prioritized ethanol production amid strong energy prices. Domestic Chinese markets reflected this uncertainty: Zhengzhou sugar futures settled at 5,334 yuan per ton, while spot quotes in Nanning held at 5,330 yuan per ton.

Brand-level activity signals accelerating market evolution. On June 13, Chinese heritage pastry brand Luxihe unveiled its first national flagship store in Nanjing's Laomendong district, integrating pastries, sugar water desserts, and tea service for the first time, with second-floor seating enabling a complete Chinese-style afternoon tea experience. The brand introduced freshly baked peach crisps and launched the exclusive "Dian Dian Xin Yi" gift series featuring five floral cheese variants. Concurrently, POP MART's POP BAKERY opened its first national store in Aranya, Qinhuangdao on June 19, representing a landmark crossover from toy collectibles into bakery retail. Cinnabon's mainland China debut on Shanghai's Huaihai Road continues to draw hour-long queues since the May 30 opening. In capital markets, Malaysian bakery products manufacturer Hup Seng Holdings recorded 10.56 times oversubscription for its IPO ahead of its June 23 listing on the ACE Market.

Regulatory headwinds are intensifying, with the European Union leading the charge. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its payment phase on January 1, 2026, with the first-quarter certificate price locked at 75.36 euros per ton of CO₂. On June 8, the European Commission's Taxation and Customs Directorate-General issued a technical study on indirect emissions under CBAM, signaling preparation for comprehensive carbon tariff application across full product lifecycle scopes. For Chinese bakery packaging exporters, carbon compliance has shifted from optional to mandatory market access. The Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) adds further urgency, with mandatory unified implementation across all 27 EU member states on August 12, 2026—less than two months away. The regulation imposes strict requirements on recyclability, minimum recycled content, and information disclosure, leaving minimal time for export-oriented enterprises to complete packaging compliance transformations.

Bakery China 2027 will continue to share more industry professional content with you, so please stay tuned!

Bakery China 2027, organized by China Association of Bakery and Confectionery Industry (CABCI) and Bakery China Exhibitions Co., Ltd. was launched since 1997. Bakery China 2027 is the Asia Pacific's leading event serving the entire value chain for the bakery and confectionery market. The event presents all range of ingredient, equipment, packaging and services, and enables global leading professionals and buyer delegates to meet and share the latest innovations and thinking on manufacturing & distribution, R&D, applications and related services for bakery industry. It is the first-choice trade fair to enter China's bakery market.

The 2026 ASEAN International Bakery Exhibition (Bakery ASEAN), will be held on August 27-29 at JIExpo (Jakarta, Indonesia), co-located with renowned WEPACK Indonesia, Cafe Show Indonesia held by Reed Exhibitions Group, is a premier trade event focusing on the bakery and related industries in ASEAN and global markets. The show will be covering 20,000 square meters, expecting more than 500 exhibitors and 50,000 professional buyers including distributors, imports and exports, manufacturers, chain stores, supermarkets, convenient stores, hotels and cafes, etc. from not only the ASEAN but also the rest of the world.

The 11th China International Bakery Autumn Exhibition (Bakery China Autumn 2026), co-hosted by CABCI and Bakery China Exhibitions Co., Ltd., will take place on October 22-24 at the Wuhan International Expo Center. Covering 50,000+ square meters with 600+ exhibitors and 70,000+ professional buyers, this premier autumn trade event focuses on year-end festive and wedding season procurement needs. Co-located with the 9th China Home Baking Show and the 6th China Bakery Industry Summit, it offers a one-stop platform for raw materials, equipment, packaging, and finished products, helping the industry seize peak-season market opportunities.

Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/S4eewVEsL4KxFLGO8W43iA