In 2025, China’s baking market is changing fast. Well-known bakery chains are closing many stores, while sales of home baking tools and ready-to-bake products are growing quickly. This split shows a major shift in how people buy and make baked goods, showcasing innovations in both production and logistics that are central to modern baking businesses, topics that will be explored in depth at Bakery China.

Why Bakery Stores Are Struggling

Big names like Paris Baguette have shut hundreds of stores in recent years. On average, a bakery in China stays open for just over two and a half years, and more than half close within two years.

Rising costs and careful spending are the main reasons. Key ingredients now cost 30–50% more, and rent in busy areas is very high. At the same time, most customers only want to pay less than 10 yuan for bread. This makes it hard for stores to make a profit.

More Competitors, More Pressure

Bakery shops also face new rivals. Coffee chains, tea shops, convenience stores, and supermarkets now sell their own baked items. They use their existing customers, locations, and supply chains to take market share.

Consumer habits are changing, too. Surveys show 70% of people won’t spend more than 10 yuan on bread. This puts pressure on bakeries to keep prices low.

Home Baking Is on the Rise

While stores struggle, home baking is growing. Sales of stand mixers rose 61% last year, and oven sales grew 16%. People are choosing to bake at home for reasons like health, cost savings, and enjoyment.

Ready-to-bake frozen products—like tart shells and dough—make home baking easier. Companies that sell these items are seeing strong growth, with some reporting profit increases over 20%.

What Comes Next

The overall baking market is still growing and is expected to reach 116 billion yuan in 2025. But where people buy is changing. More sales will come from tea shops, supermarkets, and home baking, while traditional bakeries’ share will keep falling.

Experts say the industry’s earlier boom, driven by marketing and investment, is fading. To succeed now, brands need strong products, good cost control, and a clear plan for profit.

Today’s consumers want good value, healthy options, and personal choice. The future of baking won’t be about opening more stores, but about balancing innovation, cost, and reaching customers in new ways. Brands that understand this shift will find their place in the changing market.

Bakery China 2026 will continue to share more industry professional content with you, so please stay tuned!

Bakery China 2026, organized by China Association of Bakery and Confectionery Industry (CABCI) and Bakery China Exhibitions Co., Ltd. was launched since 1997. Bakery China 2026 is the Asia Pacific’s leading event serving the entire value chain for the bakery and confectionery market. The event presents all range of ingredient, equipment, packaging and services, and enables global leading professionals and buyer delegates to meet and share the latest innovations and thinking on manufacturing & distribution, R&D, applications and related services for bakery industry. It is the first-choice trade fair to enter China’s bakery market.

The 2026 ASEAN International Bakery Exhibition (Bakery ASEAN), i.e. Indonesia Baking Exhibition, will be held on August 27-29 at JIExpo (Jakarta, Indonesia), co-located with renowned WEPACK Indonesia, Cafe Show Indonesia held by Reed Exhibitions Group, is a premier trade event focusing on the bakery and related industries in ASEAN and global markets. the shows will be covering 20,000 square meters, expecting more than 500 exhibitors and 50,000 professional buyers including distributors, imports and exports, manufacturers, chain stores, supermarkets, convenient stores, hotels and cafes, etc. from not only the ASEAN but also the rest of the world.

(Source: Soho Cuisine）